The Fiber Year 2026

The world economy has shown notable resilience in 2025, projected +3.4% in IMF‘s World Economic Outlook April 2026, despite prolonged geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts and higher trade barriers, policy uncertainty, widespread cost-of-living crisis, lingering inflation and climate-related tragedies. The outlook for 2026 is dominated by downside risks.

Economic growth projection was downwardly revised to +3.1% as the outbreak of war in the Middle East includes a significant risk of economic slowdown. It has already caused major global supply chain shocks. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since end of February, disrupting oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, leading to surging prices and increasing shipping and transportation costs. In addition, numerous force majeure declarations of petrochemical suppliers put pressure on the value-added synthetic fiber chain.

Companies will utilize decelerated economic activity to scale back inventory accumulation after 2025 has witnessed faster growth of supply in both natural and synthetic fibers than consumption at subsequent fabric and nonwovens stage. Manufacturing at the global spinning stage rose more than 3% while processing demand is projected to have edged upwards by around 1%.

Consumers, primarily in the United States, will feel tariff effects to intensify despite the conclusion of several trade agreements. Last year‘s decline of textile and apparel imports accounted for 3% in value terms and accelerated to nearly 12% contraction in Q1 2026. Americans showed considerable resilience in their spending. The mixture of cooling labor market, inflation at 3.8% in April and consumer confidence arriving at an all-time low in May on records that go back to 1952 will not stimulate non-essential spending. Redirection into other markets is connected with price recession when expanded supply suddenly meets demand that is not prepared for larger volumes. Imports into the European Union have experienced decreasing unit prices in almost any category. Besides, it is hardly imaginable to find markets fully compensating potential losses into the U.S. which will be disaster in times of overcapacity already being in place.

It took the world 2000 years to reach a volume of fibers, yarns and spunlaid nonwovens that was doubled less than 20 years later. A triplication is expected in less than 20 years again. Manmade fibers, essentially polyester and wood-based cellulosic fibers, make this breathtaking expansion possible. Their share in the world fiber market rose from 55% in 2000 to 76% at present and is projected to expand beyond 80% by 2040.

Manmade fibers in 2025 marked a new peak after surpassing the 100 million tonnes threshold following record-high manufacturing volumes in a number of segments such as polyester, nylon, viscose, spandex, lyocell, modal, carbon and aramid fiber by decreasing order of their production. The contribution of Asian industries amounted to more than 90% in recent years and is subject to further gains as consequence of massive investments in particular in the Chinese and Indian industries.

Natural fibers have reached a plateau in the recent 20 years and are projected to remain steady in future. Reasons for the proceeding replacement by manmade fibers are climate change, price disadvantages, rising demand for food crops and advancing urbanization. Cultivation of natural fibers is also quite concentrated with the five leading growers – PR China, India, Brazil, United States and Bangladesh – holding about 70% share. The both American countries have been the largest cotton exporters during the recent seven years, thus, exerting influence on the secondary spinning stage and more agreements for importing apparel made from their local cotton at preferential duties might be at mutual benefit.