TFY at ITMF Annual Conference & IAF World Fashion Convention 2025

It has been a privilege for The Fiber Year to deliver a speech about “A Bouquet of Challenges to Manmade Fibers” at the ITMF Annual Conference & IAF World Fashion Convention 2025 in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, on October 24, 2025.

The world textile market has been a success story in volume terms and there is no end in sight. It took the world 2000 years to reach a demand level that was quickly doubled just 20 years later. A triplication is expected in less than 20 years. However, don’t be misled by TFY prediction, we will be seeing a substantial slowing in annual growth rates including a shaky run in the near future. Average annual growth rates in the century to date amounted to almost 3.5% and are projected to weaken almost one percentage point lower until 2040.

Reasons for a bumpy development in the near future will be explained afterwards by means of latest trade data from the European Union, Japan and the United States.

The perspective look into applications is believed to reveal gratifying expansions in both technical and home textiles after overcoming the adjustment process in the global automotive industry, the home affordability crisis and the special effect from outsized demand during the first years of pandemic due to the accelerated shift to remote work.

Apparel end-uses will be exposed to opposing trends such as the desire for fashionable articles and demographics, growing awareness to protect nature and attempts to reuse and recycling. Demographics has always been a growth driver but we have to consider the multi-decade slowing dynamics. The annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2000 is to weaken to meager 0.4% by 2050. It is, however, not only about numbers we also should factor in the demographic structure. The group of elderly people above 65 years is projected to rise from 420 million to 1.6 billion, equal to a 16% share by 2050. This group is characterized by different buying patterns, consuming significantly less apparel, home and technical textiles but purchasing more hygiene articles.

The question which fibers are best suited to meet additional demand can easily be answered with manmade fibers, primarily polyester and regenerated cellulosic fibers. They have been the growth drivers in the century and above-average dynamics are anticipated for the years to come. Manmade fibers have strategic, unpayable advantages. On top of that, they are not exposed to climatic conditions but can be controlled to match demand. Their superior properties, advantages in price and the unlimited potential for expansions make sure that future growth in demand will be met by manmade fibers while natural fibers are projected to remain virtually stable.

The positive outlook for polyester is thanks to massive recycling investments, advantages in price, its versatile fields of application and its dominant market position.

Wood-based cellulosic fibers started their impressive rebound in 2002, tripling global output in less than a quarter of the century. The most dynamic technology is the lyocell process and lyocell fibers allow the best-possible environmental safety. The threshold of one million tonnes lyocell fibers production is projected not later than next year. A double-digit million tonnes level of lyocell fibers will be surpassed clearly before 2040.

The projection until 2040 assumes a roughly 50% addition from today’s world fiber market size. By that time, the combined share of synthetic and cellulosic fibers is anticipated to exceed 80%.

We simply cannot think of apparel, home and technical textiles as well as carpets without thinking of manmade fibers. We are all aware that manmade fibers are indispensable to meet the increasing demand for nearly 10 billion population by 2050.

In a nutshell, textile has been a growth model and steadily enlarged applications necessitate higher volumes. It means plenty of opportunities as virtually every additional demand will be met by manmade fibers in the absence of serious alternatives.

A bumpy development with lower dynamics we initially thought lies ahead for the time being. On top of that, last year’s fiber market was characterized by another decline in natural fibers but a surprisingly robust growth in manmade fibers. A larger than initially projected part of supply went on stocks, thus, the volume for subsequent processing was downwardly revised at substantial scale according to the latest report “The Fabric Year 2025”. Nevertheless, the removal of today’s obstacles will speed up the future development.

We are living in one of the most uncertain geopolitical and geoeconomic moments in generations. Several serious adversities and uncertainties complicate life and business, causing consumers to cut spendings amid mostly overfull wardrobes. International Monetary Fund predicted sluggish economic growth until 2030 which is a significant slowdown from previous decades and it will hamper manufacturing levels across the globe. We all experience record-breaking extreme weather events becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe. The global labor market is in flux with fewer workers prepared for five-day office requirements and not willing to comply with the return-to-office mandate trend. Accelerated AI revolution causes significant workforce reductions and is to eliminate many entry-level positions. Green economy has become a strategic development goal for many countries worldwide. Understanding the need to implement measures on the one hand, may otherwise carry yet undiscovered, adverse consequences in the future from potentially new technologies.

Two additional uncertainties are very much affecting the international trade flow.

The average U.S. tariff from less than 2.5% beginning of this year jumped to more than 18% to punish countries running a large export surplus in goods with the U.S. The tariff hike was meant to increase the amount of tax raised by the government, encourage consumers to buy more American-made goods and boost investments in the U.S. Interesting to note that the U.S. export surplus in services of US$312 billion to the world last year was not part of the explanations.

The top-10 textile and apparel suppliers to the U.S. had a 76% share in the import value last year. It is unrealistic to think there would be a sourcing option available from any other country with lower tariffs to offer the required quantity and quality. We have been noticing increased cost of living and this deal will add to the burden by hiking prices on imported goods, lift inflation and weigh on U.S. consumers.

Escalating tariffs are also not expected to encourage U.S. consumers to buy more American-made goods. An import substitution appears unrealistic. It would require massive textile and apparel investments in a high-income nation. In addition, labor shortage would pose another bottleneck. Thus, it needs a lot of phantasy to visualize Americans start sewing their clothing.

The Supreme Court scrutiny in November on the implementation of tariffs should provide some clarity regarding international division of labor and trade flows.

The second trade-related part gives attention to the potential end or a major revision of de minimis rules that reshaped the retail and logistics landscape. “De minimis” for nearly a century allowed people skipping import fees for small stuff but small stuff became big business pushed by online shopping and quadrupling the de minimis threshold in the U.S. to US$800 in 2016. What was never meant to be a commercial import route lifted number of packages from 140 million (2014) to 1.36 billion (2024) acc. to Customs and Border Protection. De minimis imports in the U.S. ended on August 29. The de minimis rules in Europe are currently under increasing scrutiny. Switzerland had reduced the de minimis value to CHF150 from beginning of the year. Calculations by TFY on the potential effect in volume terms arrived at the conclusion that a volume of more than one million tonnes of textile and apparel de minimis shipments entered the U.S. recently. Same calculation for France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain led to a cumulative quantity below 0.4 million tonnes. The crucial question for fiber consumption is at what prices will this quantity be offered in future or will it be deleted without replacement?

The impact of the above-mentioned adversities and uncertainties on major markets is already being reflected in latest trade figures.

The U.S. textile and apparel import quantity averaged more than 10 million tonnes annually during the quota-free period. It’s hardly imaginable to find markets fully compensating potential losses into the U.S. which will be a disaster in times of overcapacity already being in place. After the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, the sourcing volume strongly fell from May. So far, total 7-month sourcing volume just advanced 2% including 3 million tonnes apparel, up 5%, with a slowing synthetic apparel share. A slowing in U.S. consumer spendings seems most likely as they are getting increasingly nervous on inflation and the labor market shows signs of significant cooling. Americans have not cut back spending so far with unemployment remaining low but the consumer sentiment worsened again in October to its seventh-lowest level on records, going back to 1952. The September Fed rate cut is neither expected to fuel demand nor to unmake the home affordability crisis.

Hence, major suppliers will rather step up efforts to seek for alternative sales destinations. That appears to be the need of the hour. An extended supply from diverted flows meeting steady demand will result in a drifting down of prices. That has been recently visible in the European area and Japan.

Total quantity into European Union until July increased by more than 11% with apparel shipments even jumping by 16%. Apparel volumes saw double-digit growth rates from most Asian industries. That may surprise at first sight as many experts have been talking about the opportunity for European near-shoring since pandemic. However, the trade flow structure does not reflect those views with shrinking garment deliveries from Türkiye by -11%, Tunisia -6% and Morocco -1%. Continuous declines in apparel unit prices are certainly result of diverted trade flows to keep domestic utilization rates in Asia running in an attempt to find sales markets beyond the U.S.

A similar development was observable in Japan with total quantity rising almost 5% and higher dynamics for apparel sourcing, up +8%. The average garment import price level for both knitwear and woven apparel has also witnessed decreases starting from March.

Cumulative import flows into both EU and Japan are very much comparable in volume terms with the U.S. at around 3 million tonnes until July but will not be able to fully compensate lower flows into the U.S.

So, crucial question is whether and when demand will pick up? Otherwise, operating rates are to worsen amid squeezed margins. In a nutshell, we might be seeing the beginning phase of a slowdown without a trend reversal recognizable under the given adversities and uncertainties.